Friday, June 26, 2009

Michael Jackson : A Fascinating Mythological Figure


The death of Michael Jackson has moved me more than I would have predicted. His hits are a part of my childhood and his passing reminds us of not only of our mortality but also of our collective cruelty.

There are so many fascinating things about the Michael's life. The magic image of his movements during his best performances remain a delight to watch. He assumed the behavior of a child as an adult; one wonders how much of that was also performance. The man changed his skin color and the shape of his face to the dramatic extent that he literally became a walking mask. When he was observed shopping in Arabia wearing an all-covering burqa, it was as if he had added a disguise over a disguise. For all the joy he had brought the world and through all the weirdness, it was easy to see a deeply hurt individual in his interviews. As he faced his accusers (see the interview with Diane Sawyer - which ABC foolishly does not have posted), he claims innocence and purity. It was natural for Michael, abused as a child, to use his fame and power to put himself outside of behavioral expectations. The worldwide acclaim put him beyond superstardom and he used the acclaim so that no one would ever tell Michael what to do again.

In the end, Michael Jackson will take a place in history as a rare occurrence of someone who became other than human. He was much more than an influential eccentric like a Howard Hughes. He had an otherworldly quality, in his performance, his actions, and his words that were weirdly like a possessed person; a saint sans the religion. He was the product of our cruel televised culture: one that allowed his tyrannical father to abuse him for profit as a child, one quick to judge and abandon over speculative events, one which raised the man to a self-destructive hyperstardom.

MJ dead at 50. Name any other entertainer credited with something as powerful as the moonwalk.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Hack Philosophy: An Argument Against Materialism?


I admit my indulgence in thinking about lofty questions such as what it means to be alive, what the nature of the universe is, etc... As an engineer, I have inherited a distaste for theological explanations that stave off nihilism by positing the existence of supernatural beings. Yet, from my own experience, I can't deny the vast wonder and mystery that accompanies life.

So here is a quick argument against materialism, which may not be original or even a good one:

Premises:

1) There are emergent phenomena in the universe that are the consequence of network behavior: provable ones include ant colonies, the internet. I also assert consciousness and language are such phenomena as well.

2) Altering the individual material components (ants, routers, neurons) which comprise these special types of network alter the system in unpredictable ways. The consequences of physical alteration are not ultimately knowable by any being with omniscient knowledge as to the exact, current state of the system. That is, there is a limit in the state of matter in the Universe towards randomness (witnessed in quantum mechanics) and this randomness occurs in nature (such as the entanglement which has been observed in plants).

Conclusion:
3) Therefore there is a separation between the material which creates emergent systems and the systems themselves. The material does not explain the system fully. Consciousness, built on memory and language, as such a system then is not ultimately a material one, even though, paradoxically, it depends critically upon material causes.

Ok, I feel good. Whether this is a good argument or not, (are the premises true?), and criticism arise, at least I thought for myself today which cheers me up. In my mind, we're all emergent behavior, something much more wonderful than a mere collection of cells.

[ASIDE: Do proponents of strong AI assert predictability? If you created the same strongly AI being from the same state, would it act exactly the same given the exact same environment?]

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Torn Meniscus ?


As I progress (!) on my path towards a PhD the journey has had its ups and downs. Last Thursday I injured my left knee playing roller hockey one short month before my Greece trip, conference presentations and wedding. Along with the stress of trying to finish a dissertation, establish solid foundation for what is next after grad school in dire economic conditions, and getting married, now I am adding this grace.

The MRI is on Saturday, results interpreted Monday.

Friday, May 15, 2009

25 bucks can go a far way


Introducing Mandahsuren Baatar, my new Kiva loan recipient:


Mandahsuren Baatar is 38, married, and the mother of two: ages 11 and 13. Her family lives in a "ger" (traditional nomadic tent) district on the plot of land her family owns in Uvurhangay, one of the Mongolian central provinces. Both her children are attending an elementary school.

Mandahsuren started running a retail business in 2002. She used to sell bicycles and bike accessories outside a local market. In 2004, with her profit, she bought a little booth and started selling spare parts inside the market. In 2007 she bought another bigger booth to sell motorcycle spare parts. Her husband Dashhuu helps her run these businesses. Dashhuu goes to Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, once or twice every month to buy spare parts at the wholesale markets. Their regular customers are mostly herders who have motorcycles for their daily transportation needs.

Mandahsuren says that "with my profit I'm able to save money for my children's future university tuition." She requests a loan to buy spare parts for her business.


May my twenty five dollars go towards many spare parts. I'd let her go through the junk in my apartment, too.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Waltz with Bashir

Caught the movie the other night here at UCSB. A dark foreign film in gripping animated format that follows the memories of Israeli men and their participation in the mid eighties invasion of Lebanon.

War movies have often glamorized a horrific aspect of human nature. This movie will bring reality to your attention. Highly recommended. I left the movie in silence.

Monday, April 6, 2009

How Many Overvalued Homes Does It Take to Break the Economy?

A quick thought experiment: Let's suppose that on average an overvaluation of $100,000 was issued to sellers in the form of mortgages during the housing bubble. So when the housing market readjusts to a reasonable multiple of median income, $100,000 will have been lost.

How many houses makes up $1 trillion in lost money? Money that has already been issued to sellers? (i.e. some people got very rich)

The answer is 1x 10^12 divided by 1x10^5 = 1x10^7 or 10 million homes. When you consider the average house sheltering 4 people, that's 40 million people or 1/7th of the US population. Is it reasonable to say 14% of the U.S. got caught in $100,000 of overvaluation? Another way to put it is on average, if there are 70 million homes in the US, each one was overvalued by $14,000. Not a crazy amount.

Take this base amount of $1 trillion (an arbitrary number) and multiply by the illusory value of risk reduction in the form of packaged derivatives, and you have a potentially huge amount of money. Hence the IMF's declaration today that toxic debts could reach $4 trillion.

So the writing is on the wall and it's too ugly for anyone to point out the emperor's lack of clothes. The centers of the financial universe, large banks and other big players around the world, got caught holding tons of this crap when the game of musical chairs stopped. Huge swathes of money are owed which will never be repaid and this is going to wipe out individuals, towns, states and corporations.

People, like those who refinanced their home mortgages to fund buying another house, have lost amounts equivalent to 10+ years of savings from the drop in real estate values alone. With salaries not rising to match the cost of home ownership, one has to wonder who the people buying into these seller markets were expecting to buy the properties. Were they expecting large financial institutions (the only ones with access to the money required) to buy all these houses, which in effect they have?

Another way to think of it: if the price of your automobile had been skyrocketing each month, just now reaching $100,000 (and all this not due to limited supply) would you have sunk money into cars? It must be tempting, when your neighbor bought a 2002 Ford Focus last month at $30,000 and just sold it for $40,000.

But at some point you have to realize how insane the price is. The only option becomes to buy a horse instead and watch the world collapse around you. Probably too many people trusted that the powers that be would prevent the widespread fraud that went into the run up of housing prices.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Beware the Hyperinflation

Which mechanism prevents hyperinflation after the multi-trillion dollar injection into the money supply eases the flow of money?