Peak Oil: Is the end nigh?

I just heard Matthew Simmons, an investment banker specializing in the energy industry, give a talk on peak oil. He told us he had struggled to find a title for his latest oil book that wasn't 'to hell in a hand basket.' Things are looking very grim.

The demand for oil has essentially no limit to growth as supplies dwindle. Simmons calls for a swift, massive effective oil conservation effort to mitigate the chaos that will occur as prices dramatically rise and as we struggle to transfer to renewable energy.

He feels the need for a worldwide 'Energy War' implementing the following:
- energy data reform: make all oil fields release accurate production data so they can be aggregated and wiser decisions on how to manage energy can be made.
- transfer to safe, clean energy
- enact a massive change in oil use by:
1) liberate the workforce. stop requiring commuting, instead pay by productivity. 2 hour commutes would disappear as people who could would work from home
2) ship people and goods primarily by water.
3) reduce long-distance food miles
4) make goods close to home
- undertake a 'Manhattan project' for Energy R&D

This comes from an industry friendly guy, with close contact to key data and key players in the oil arena. His warnings have nothing to do with conservationism. When guys like this begin to have talks like this, people should start to get really, really scared and see the writing on the wall.

Simmons predicts that prices in 5 to 7 years are going to force many of these changes anyway, so perhaps it's time to start preparing for them now. The dream is over, our energy supply was not unlimited at such a low cost (oil costs less than water in a bottle).

Maybe it's like Kurt Vonnegut said - the world is about to come off a massive oil high and he doesn't want to be around for the withdrawal symptoms.

Tellingly, Simmons lists his key critics as: CERA (who he derides as having reports full of bogus data), Exxon, BP, Shell and Saudi Arabia.

Microlending to save the world

Let's face this fact: a large part of the world's problems stem from the depressing futures people living in poverty have. The world buckles under the strain of dissatisfied masses with no hope for security, a fulfilling life, nor escape from destitution. This is the root cause of terrorism.

A simple thing for 1st worlders to do would be to lend some small amount of money, $20, $50 directly to developing world people in need of a lift. Kiva.org facilitates this in an exciting way never possible before.

I've currently funded part of Abraham Adamamo's, pictured above, loan request which he would like to use to open his own barber shop. I'm assuming his request has been legitimately vetted, and this money isn't really going to gunrunning. Call that my leap of faith.

Here is the description from Kiva. I hope more people participate in the microloan process:

Mr. Abraham ADAMAMO is a single, 20-year-old man. As he comes from a large, poor family, he abandoned school early to come to Lomé to work as a porter in the large Lomé market. As this job became more and more tiresome without earning him decent wages, he quickly became an unlicensed street vendor in the large intersections of Lomé. With this job he earned a small amount of savings, which allowed him to study for two years to be a barber. As he did not have the financial means to open his own workshop after his training, he worked in a shop helping a friend, who was only taking advantage of him.

A brave a courageous man, Mr. Abraham ADAMAMO has decided to open his own barber shop in order to take his destiny into his own hands. To do so, he is requesting a loan of $950, which will allow him to rent a shop and buy the necessary equipment, such as mechanical and electric clippers and necessary cosmetic products. This very dedicated young man deserves to be supported in order to allow him to better his life and get out of poverty. He would serve as a good example for other young people who are falling into difficult situations.

Translated from French by Kristina Jackson, Kiva Volunteer.

A Theory of Enlightenment

A Theory of Enlightenment

As someone involved in a straitfaced engineering career, I probably shouldn't post about this, but one should stick to their guns or beliefs. In January 2004 I had a life-affirming, life-changing spiritual experience while traveling in Australia which led me to feel firmly that something similar to what the Buddhists describe as enlightenment really exists. Call it grace from God or some super-ecstastic emotional state. I also would like to go on the record as not believing in God in the old-world sense. I'm agnostic about being agnostic, which I feel makes my ideas about 'enlightenment' more credible - they're free from dogma.

Here are some of my ideas about that now:

Latent within many minds, based on condition, is the ability to step above one's ordinary mode of consciousness, into another that primarily observes the ordinary sense of consciousness, perception and sensation. While in this state an overwhelming compassion fills ones being along with a gratefulness for being alive.

Necessary conditions for entering such a state may include:
- freedom from distractions, environmental noises
- freedom from concern with satisfying primary needs of clothing, food and shelter,
- freedom from social rejection
- intelligent curiosity about the nature of existence

This latent ability is not talked about openly in society, although it is part of the Eastern religions and as such is often dismissed in West. Its existence is doubted. It may be that prophets experienced a strong, special, and long-lasting shift of consciousness but given the evolution of human thought such statements can be merely speculative. Enlightenment 'by the masses' is not necessarily, and probably is not, a lifelong shift of consciousness that occurs but instead occurs for short periods of time such as minutes, hours or days. The state is unlike any of the emotions felt in ordinary consciousness, unlike attractive, familial, or friendly love, and unlike the change in consciousness due to any drug including hallucinogenics. Firsthand experience will convince one that it does truly exist, although due to its subjectivity there is no proof of attainment. The state carries with it a strong spiritual sense, and does not seem to be able to be induced via any known technique including prayer, meditation, contemplation, concentration. It is as if the grace of a higher power, a being behind the veil ordering everything, is solely responsible for the higher level of consciousness, and entering it is one of the existence's greatest gifts. Belief in such a being is not a necessity, nor does the state reveal any characteristics of such a being, name, wishes, etc...

The state may be related to near death experience.

Good 'ol Henry Rollins

I've enjoyed Henry Rollins marathon spoken word sessions, here he goes on Net Neutrality:


Find this video and thousands of others at vSocial!

Engineers Without Borders - Lighting projects

Engineers without Borders, EWB, is a relatively new organization for professionals mirroring the groundbreaking organization Doctors without Borders. To some extent, volunteering medical counseling has much more immediate impact and is easier to set up logistically - a doctor can arrive at a clinic (hopefully with a bagful of meds!) and start treating people. Engineers, on the other hand, have to make inroads with a potential site, assess needs, and then continually work with local politicians to implement a project which usually consists of some new technology, whose production can be taught, and whose construction is from locally available materials.

EWB suffers from the fact that construction projects of high impact usually require a commitment of years, and professionals or students are lucky to afford a period of weeks abroad. Even the Peace Corps, given 2+ years presence in a village, is lucky to leave behind any long standing infrastructure. However, the point may be more to spread good will & compassion than to build skyscrapers in the Peruvian Andes, and change the mindset of fortunate souls in the affluent first world.

As an electrical engineer, at Shuji Nakamura's institution (inventor of blue and white light LED), it appears a natural tie in to work energy efficient solid state lighting into my involvement with the EWB chapter here. The chapter has had a continuing commitment of years with a project at Araypallpa, Peru, and has developed sustainable solar panels for the village who have been until very recently unconnected to the electrical grid.

I'll be updating my progress with the EWB lighting project in Peru as things proceed, but for now I wanted to share a quick compilation of lighting facts, comparing incandescent, flourescent, and solid state solutions:

EWB UCSB – Peru Project, Lighting Subgroup.

Prepared by: Jim Kleban 01/11/07

Some Lighting Facts

Sustainable lighting – lighting powered by a renewable energy source, for example solar lighting

Energy saving lighting – more efficient lighting in terms of Lumens per Watt (compared to incandescent bulbs). Flourescents or LED

Compact flourescents – fluorescent bulbs have traditionally been long tubes in ceiling mounts. Recently developed compact fluorescent light bulbs fit in conventional lamp sockets. These use roughly ¼ of the power of incandescent bulbs for the same amount of light

Source Wikipedia.org:

There are two main parts to a CFL: the gas-filled tube (also called bulb or burner) and the magnetic or electronic ballast. Electrical energy in the form of an electrical current from the ballast flows through the gas, causing it to give off ultraviolet light. The ultraviolet light then excites a white phosphor coating on the inside of the tube. This coating emits visible light.

Walmart’s 2006 goal: sell one CFL to every one of their 100 million customers. So far failing.

You can buy 4 Rite-Aid CFLs for $4 that give same light as 60W or 75W incandescents. Or you can buy 4 incandescents for $2.

LED lighting – (SSL) solid state semiconductor physics causes photon emissions creating visible light with virtually no heat or parasitic energy dissipation.

Advantages (Source Wikipedia.org):

· High durability - no filament or tube to break

· Long life span - LEDs last approximately 100,000 hours

· Low power consumption - reduces overall electricity bill

· Flexible application – small size of LEDs can lead to unique lighting devices

· Low heat generation – very little parasitic energy loss

“Currently, however, there is no SSL on the market that can be offered as a true replacement for incandescent or fluorescent lamps, even though several manufacturers have gone forward with the introduction of such products. White LEDs produced today are too expensive to be considered affordable, and the lumens produced by the LEDs today are not as bright as traditional lighting.”

However there are portable lighting possibilities: flashlights, headlamps, mining lamps, bicycle lights.

Cost: (from superbrightleds.com) - $590 for 1000 – each LED emits 18 lumens with 30 degree viewing angle

A typical 60W incandescent might yield 900 lumens and costs 50 cents. Equivalent LED lamp (ignoring the narrow viewing angle) would require 50 white LEDS so would cost $29.50 in diodes alone.

Some Economics

Average energy cost US - $0.106 per kWh (2006)

Average electricity cost Peru - $0.10 kWh (1999) (source:http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/pedc/cases/peru.asp)

Mean annual income US – $60,528 ($43,000 median)

Mean annual income Peru – $2,390 (US)